Can ‘Online Surges’ Drive Long Term Attitude Change?

It comes as little surprise to learn that today’s wave of anti-Muslim online sentiment is being led by specific Islamophobic organisations, and channelled through public figures such as Tommy Robinson and Pamela Geller. And over the last three years, a spate of incidents tied to Muslim perpetrators, including vehicle attacks and knifings, have added fuel to the fire and, in the minds of some, justified their anti-Muslim viewpoints. Indeed, one often notices a sense of warped, self-righteous ‘public duty’, among online commenters who bash Muslims and link them ceaselessly to terrorism. After all, aren’t terrorists a danger to our society; public enemy number one? Surely it’s acceptable to point that out. When looking through the lens of online news and social media, especially in the unbridled comments sections, the casual observer may come to feel that the majority of Britons hate, fear, and dehumanise Muslims.

But that particular picture of public opinion could be misleading. The true makeup of this climate of hate may come as more of a surprise. A soon-to-be-published report (and numerous bloggers and journalists) claims that many of the social media accounts spreading anti-Muslim sentiment online aren’t who they claim to be. Many aren’t even human, while others don’t represent ‘organic’ human opinions. Here we have the bots and paid sock-puppets. One is generated by algorithms, the other operates from a pre-existing messaging playbook. Attempts to engage them in dialogue often feel like arguing with a brick wall, or an extremely resilient ideologue; impervious to reason of any kind. Oddly, people often describe ardent Trump supporters in this way.

In terms of the climate around Muslims and Islam, these media manipulators use a range of tools to try and shift public opinion on a wide scale. A lot of psychological devices come into play here, for example the bandwagon effect. In this, people tend to do something just because others are doing it; such as blindly adopting a popular opinion around a contentious social or political issue. It’s a tool that’s been used for decades in political campaigns and commercial advertising. When bots and sock-puppets masquerade as ordinary British and American citizens (cleverly leveraging their profiles to appear so) who hate Islam, they are relying on the bandwagon effect to encourage real citizens to adopt similar views. When it looks like so many people are talking badly about a certain group or person, it’s easy to assume the rumours might well be true. The bot armies also latch onto people like Tommy Robinson to amplify his messages, and add their own, whenever a relevant story breaks.

Unfortunately, terrorist attacks have become a critical asset in a giant influence ops campaign. Just as PR stunts drive content marketing traffic in the commercial world, so attacks (or rumours of attacks) also drive anti-Muslim ‘brand-building’ in the world of organised Islamophobia. It’s an interesting symbiotic relationship that would merit further study. The prime goals of the campaign appears to be driving wedges into society, creating an atmosphere of fear and turning groups against one another. Persuasion, whether by means of disinformation or fact, has attitude change as its end goal. A range of psychological theories purport to explain the processes behind it, but for now it’s more important to focus on effects. Whoever is masterminding these influence ops wants to shift the pendulum and create a new anti-Muslim normal in public opinion. They are using every tool at their disposal to do so, including false amplification, echo chambers, and visual disinformation.

But is the campaign working? To find out, we need to measure subtle shifts in public sentiment over a span of years, and then find out how to tie them to anti-Islam messaging campaigns. Of course, results are likely to be skewed by certain factors. One could be the mainstream British media, in particular the Express and Daily Mail, where coverage of all things immigration, refugees and Islam often teeters on the brink of disinformation, especially in the ways in which topics are spun. Specific incidents, especially of visual disinformation, such as the Muslim woman at Westminster, could be used as starting points to track associated sentiment online. Fearful knee-jerk reactions to terrorist attacks are to be expected, but broader long-term shifts in sentiment are harder to track. What’s more, they are far more insidious, corroding society from the inside out.

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